{"id":1290381,"name":"Projected cropland under the Business As Usual scenario","unit":"hectares","createdAt":"2026-07-10T10:49:31.000Z","updatedAt":"2026-07-10T10:49:31.000Z","coverage":"","timespan":"2030-2050","datasetId":8038,"shortUnit":"ha","columnOrder":0,"shortName":"cropland_business_as_usual","catalogPath":"grapher/agriculture/2026-07-03/cropland_projections/cropland_projections#cropland_business_as_usual","descriptionShort":"Projected area of land used to grow crops, under FAO's \"Business As Usual\" scenario, where historical trends in food and agriculture continue.","descriptionProcessing":"- Values correspond to the world totals published in Table 4.12 of the report, converted from million hectares to hectares.\n- The projections start from a 2012 base year (1,567 million hectares, shared by the three scenarios), which is not shown in charts, to avoid overlapping with the observed data.","type":"int","datasetName":"Cropland projections to 2050","updatePeriodDays":0,"datasetVersion":"2026-07-03","nonRedistributable":false,"display":{"unit":"hectares","shortUnit":"ha","numDecimalPlaces":0},"schemaVersion":2,"processingLevel":"major","presentation":{"topicTagsLinks":["Land Use"]},"descriptionKey":["Cropland — called \"arable land\" in the source — is the physical area used to grow crops, including both temporary and permanent crops.","Projections are based on simulations with FAO's Global Agriculture Perspectives System (GAPS) model, starting from a 2012 base year.","In the Business As Usual scenario, the world develops according to socio-economic, technological and environmental patterns that fail to address many challenges of food and agriculture, despite efforts to achieve Sustainable Development Goal targets. Economic growth is moderate but uneven across countries, and policies provide only limited incentives to move towards sustainability."],"dimensions":{"years":{"values":[{"id":2030},{"id":2050}]},"entities":{"values":[{"id":355,"name":"World","code":"OWID_WRL"}]}},"origins":[{"id":15702,"titleSnapshot":"The future of food and agriculture - Alternative pathways to 2050 - Arable land","title":"The future of food and agriculture - Alternative pathways to 2050","descriptionSnapshot":"World totals of arable land, transcribed from Table 4.12 of the report, including a historical value (1970), the base year of the projections (2012), and projections (2030 and 2050) under each of the three scenarios.","description":"FAO's Global Perspectives Studies report \"The future of food and agriculture - Alternative pathways to 2050\" explores three scenarios of global food and agriculture up to 2050, based on simulations with the FAO Global Agriculture Perspectives System (GAPS) model:\n- Business As Usual (BAU): a continuation of historical trends.\n- Towards Sustainability (TSS): a shift towards more sustainable food systems.\n- Stratified Societies (SSS): a future of increased inequality.","producer":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations","citationFull":"FAO. 2018. The future of food and agriculture - Alternative pathways to 2050. Rome. 224 pp.","attributionShort":"FAO","urlMain":"https://www.fao.org/global-perspectives-studies/resources/detail/en/c/1157074/","dateAccessed":"2026-07-03","datePublished":"2018","license":{"url":"https://openknowledge.fao.org/handle/20.500.14283/I8429EN","name":"CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO"}}]}