{"id":541435,"name":"projected_deaths_since_2020_all_ages","unit":"","createdAt":"2023-02-06T17:14:53.000Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-11T19:04:04.000Z","coverage":"","timespan":"","datasetId":5874,"columnOrder":0,"shortName":"projected_deaths_since_2020_all_ages","catalogPath":"grapher/excess_mortality/latest/excess_mortality/excess_mortality#projected_deaths_since_2020_all_ages","descriptionShort":"Projected number of weekly or monthly deaths from all causes for all ages for since 2020.","type":"float","dataChecksum":"13212137705279561101","metadataChecksum":"6903069406090933788","datasetName":"Excess Mortality (various sources)","datasetVersion":"latest","nonRedistributable":false,"display":{"name":"Projected, 2020","zeroDay":"2020-01-05","yearIsDay":true,"includeInTable":true,"numDecimalPlaces":0},"schemaVersion":2,"presentation":{},"descriptionKey":["Excess deaths is estimated as _Excess deaths = Number of reported deaths - Number of expected deaths_. Excess mortality goes beyond confirmed COVID-19 fatalities by capturing all deaths above a projected baseline, including indirect deaths from pandemic-related disruptions.","All-cause mortality data is from the Human Mortality Database (HMD) Short-term Mortality Fluctuations project and the World Mortality Dataset (WMD). Both sources are updated weekly.","We use the baseline estimates by [Ariel Karlinsky and Dmitry Kobak (2021)](https://elifesciences.org/articles/69336) as part of their World Mortality Dataset (WMD).","We do not use the data from some countries in WMD because they fail to meet the following data quality criteria: 1) at least three years of historical data; and 2) data published either weekly or monthly. The full list of excluded countries and reasons for exclusion can be found in [this 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Excess mortality is computed relative to the baseline obtained using linear extrapolation of the 2015–19 trend (different baselines for 2020, 2021, and 2022). In each subplot in the figure below, gray lines are 2015–19, black line is baseline for 2020, red line is 2020, blue line is 2021, orange line is 2022. Countries are sorted by the total excess mortality as % of the 2020 baseline.\n\nFor more details, refer to https://github.com/dkobak/excess-mortality#excess-mortality-during-the-covid-19-pandemic.","producer":"Karlinsky and Kobak","citationFull":"Karlinsky, A. and Kobak, D. (2021). Tracking excess mortality across countries during the COVID-19 pandemic with the World Mortality Dataset. eLife, 10:e69336. https://elifesciences.org/articles/69336.","urlMain":"https://github.com/dkobak/excess-mortality","urlDownload":"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/dkobak/excess-mortality/main/baselines-per-year.csv","dateAccessed":"2026-05-11","datePublished":"2021-06-30","license":{"url":"https://github.com/dkobak/excess-mortality/blob/main/LICENSE","name":"GPL-3.0"}}]}