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estimates of the true number of COVID-19 infections by LSHTM model. It shows the bound of a 95% uncertainty interval.","type":"float","dataChecksum":"135586957143928675","metadataChecksum":"2341868996555562845","datasetName":"COVID-19, infection model estimates","updatePeriodDays":365,"datasetVersion":"latest","nonRedistributable":false,"display":{"name":"Lower","unit":"estimated infections","zeroDay":"2019-12-26","yearIsDay":true,"numDecimalPlaces":3},"schemaVersion":2,"presentation":{"titlePublic":"Daily new estimated COVID-19 infections (LSHTM, Low estimate)","topicTagsLinks":["COVID-19"]},"descriptionKey":"- LSHTM uses a delay-adjusted CFR comparison to estimate how many symptomatic infections go undetected, then adds an assumed 10-70% asymptomatic share to estimate total infections.\n- A baseline CFR of 1.4% - derived from early data in China - underpins the model, potentially leading to overestimation or underestimation of infections in populations with different age structures.\n- By assuming confirmed deaths reflect true deaths, the model may underestimate the actual health burden in places where fatalities are underreported or reported with delays.\n- Retroactive revisions in death data can introduce discrepancies, affecting the model's calculations of under-ascertainment rates.\n- While it highlights under-detection of infections, the model's accuracy depends heavily on its baseline CFR assumptions and the completeness of reported deaths data.\n- More assumptions and limitations are discussed in [the full report](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/UnderReporting.pdf).","origins":[{"id":1339,"title":"Using a delay-adjusted case fatality ratio to estimate under-reporting","description":"Estimate the percentage of symptomatic COVID-19 cases reported in different countries using case fatality ratio estimates based on data from the ECDC, correcting for delays between confirmation-and-death.","producer":"London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine","citationFull":"Russell, T. W., Hellewell, J., Abbott, S., Golding, N., Gibbs, H., Jarvis, C. I., van Zandvoort, K., CMMID COVID-19 working group, Flasche, S., Eggo, R. M., Edmunds, W. J., & Kucharski, A. J. (2020). Using a delay-adjusted case fatality ratio to estimate under-reporting. BMC Medicine. Retrieved from https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/global_cfr_estimates.html.","attributionShort":"LSHTM","urlMain":"https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/global_cfr_estimates.html","dateAccessed":"2020-08-27","datePublished":"2020","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0"}}]}