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infections","zeroDay":"2019-12-26","yearIsDay":true,"numDecimalPlaces":3},"schemaVersion":2,"presentation":{"titlePublic":"Daily new estimated COVID-19 infections (Youyang Gu, Mean estimate)","topicTagsLinks":["COVID-19"]},"descriptionKey":"- The model combines a standard SEIR framework with a machine-learning layer that adjusts parameters to align with observed data, aiming for forecast accuracy.\n- Using reported deaths and an estimated infection fatality rate (IFR) to back-calculate infections can introduce uncertainty, especially if actual deaths are underreported.\n- The model assumes that IFR decreases over time (e.g., to 30% of its initial value) to reflect changing demographics of infection and improvements in treatment.\n- Although designed primarily for the United States, the model also provides estimates for other countries, where it may have reduced accuracy due to differing data quality and health-system factors.\n- Updates to the model ceased on 5 October 2020, so any emerging trends or subsequent changes in testing, transmission, or IFR are not reflected in its latest estimates.\n- For a full list of assumptions and limitations see [the model \"About\" page](https://covid19-projections.com/about/#assumptions).","origins":[{"id":1340,"title":"COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning","description":"Comprehensive library of the recent updates but also all historical updates. If you are only interested in the last infections estimates made in March 2021, click here. See a list of all of our COVID-19 repositories below.","producer":"Youyang Gu","citationFull":"Russell, T. W., Hellewell, J., Abbott, S., Golding, N., Gibbs, H., Jarvis, C. I., van Zandvoort, K., CMMID COVID-19 working group, Flasche, S., Eggo, R. M., Edmunds, W. J., & Kucharski, A. J. (2020). Using a delay-adjusted case fatality ratio to estimate under-reporting. BMC Medicine. Retrieved from https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/global_cfr_estimates.html.","urlMain":"https://github.com/youyanggu/covid19_projections","dateAccessed":"2020-10-06","datePublished":"2020","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0"}}]}