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Data

Forest transition phase

About this data

Source
Pendrill et al. (2019) – processed by Our World in Data
Last updated
October 28, 2020
Date range
2013–2013

Sources and processing

This data is based on the following sources

Pendrill et al. – Deforestation displaced: trade in forest-risk commodities and the prospects for a global forest transition

The study categorized countries into four categories based on their stage in the forest transition.

As, detailed, they follow a similar framework to Hosonuma et al. (2012).

"Countries exhibiting low deforestation rates are classified as pre- or post-transition depending on whether forest cover is high or low (or if net reforestation is occurring); countries with high deforestation rates are classified as early-transition if gross deforestation is increasing and remaining forest cover is not too low, and late-transition otherwise. We decided to use a slightly lower threshold than Hosonuma et al (2012). We also manually adjusted the classification for a few post-transition countries that were not classified as such and excluded countries with less than 5% forest cover."

Hosonuma describe the Forest Transition Model as: "The four FT phases are pre-transition, early transition, late transition and post-transition, which generally represent a time sequence of national development. Pre-transition countries have high forest cover and low deforestation rates. In early-transition countries, forest cover is lost at an increasingly rapid rate. Late-transition countries with a rather small fraction of remaining forests exhibit a slowing of the deforestation rate and eventually come into the post-transition phase, where the forest area change rate becomes positive and forest cover increases through reforestation. The FT model reflects a broad-scale typology of tropical developing countries, applicable as a proxy for analyzing the temporal variability of drivers of deforestation and forest degradation."

Additional references: Hosonuma, N., Herold, M., De Sy, V., De Fries, R. S., Brockhaus, M., Verchot, L., ... & Romijn, E. (2012). An assessment of deforestation and forest degradation drivers in developing countries. Environmental Research Letters, 7(4), 044009.

Retrieved on
October 28, 2020
Retrieved from
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab0d41
Citation
This is the citation of the original data obtained from the source, prior to any processing or adaptation by Our World in Data. To cite data downloaded from this page, please use the suggested citation given in Reuse This Work below.
Pendrill, F., Persson, U. M., Godar, J., and Kastner, T. (2019). Deforestation displaced: trade in forest-risk commodities and the prospects for a global forest transition. Environmental Research Letters, 14(5), 055003.

The study categorized countries into four categories based on their stage in the forest transition.

As, detailed, they follow a similar framework to Hosonuma et al. (2012).

"Countries exhibiting low deforestation rates are classified as pre- or post-transition depending on whether forest cover is high or low (or if net reforestation is occurring); countries with high deforestation rates are classified as early-transition if gross deforestation is increasing and remaining forest cover is not too low, and late-transition otherwise. We decided to use a slightly lower threshold than Hosonuma et al (2012). We also manually adjusted the classification for a few post-transition countries that were not classified as such and excluded countries with less than 5% forest cover."

Hosonuma describe the Forest Transition Model as: "The four FT phases are pre-transition, early transition, late transition and post-transition, which generally represent a time sequence of national development. Pre-transition countries have high forest cover and low deforestation rates. In early-transition countries, forest cover is lost at an increasingly rapid rate. Late-transition countries with a rather small fraction of remaining forests exhibit a slowing of the deforestation rate and eventually come into the post-transition phase, where the forest area change rate becomes positive and forest cover increases through reforestation. The FT model reflects a broad-scale typology of tropical developing countries, applicable as a proxy for analyzing the temporal variability of drivers of deforestation and forest degradation."

Additional references: Hosonuma, N., Herold, M., De Sy, V., De Fries, R. S., Brockhaus, M., Verchot, L., ... & Romijn, E. (2012). An assessment of deforestation and forest degradation drivers in developing countries. Environmental Research Letters, 7(4), 044009.

Retrieved on
October 28, 2020
Retrieved from
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab0d41
Citation
This is the citation of the original data obtained from the source, prior to any processing or adaptation by Our World in Data. To cite data downloaded from this page, please use the suggested citation given in Reuse This Work below.
Pendrill, F., Persson, U. M., Godar, J., and Kastner, T. (2019). Deforestation displaced: trade in forest-risk commodities and the prospects for a global forest transition. Environmental Research Letters, 14(5), 055003.

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“Data Page: Forest transition phase”. Our World in Data (2026). Data adapted from Pendrill et al.. Retrieved from https://archive.ourworldindata.org/20260511-092124/grapher/forest-transition-phase.html [online resource] (archived on May 11, 2026).

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Pendrill et al. (2019) – processed by Our World in Data

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Pendrill et al. (2019) – processed by Our World in Data. “Forest transition phase” [dataset]. Pendrill et al., “Deforestation displaced: trade in forest-risk commodities and the prospects for a global forest transition” [original data]. Retrieved May 11, 2026 from https://archive.ourworldindata.org/20260511-092124/grapher/forest-transition-phase.html (archived on May 11, 2026).

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